Hungary's Western Balkan policy in the Visegrad context
While analyzing the Visegrad engagement in South East Europe, this paper will focus on two aspects of foreign policy: bilateral relations between the Visegrad Four and the Western Balkan countries, and the Visegrad contribution to the EU’s foreign policy in the region. In particular, those few issues and instances will be concentrated on when the Visegrad countries – individually or in a joint enterprise – managed to make use of an emerging policy niche and adopted an original course of action by which they not only differed from the EU’s main policy line but also managed to influence it. This paper will argue however, that even though all four states in general share a pro-enlargement stance, in practice the main divide between devoted supporters of Euro-Atlantic enlargement to South Eastern Europe and those preferring to take a more cautious approach by demanding tough conditionality lie elsewhere than on the borders of the Visegrad group. It will be further argued that in the area of dealing with the so called high policy issues, such as the constitutional reform in Bosnia, the Macedonian name fiasco or the challenge of North Kosovo, the large (and old) member states together with the United States dictate the agenda. At the same time, the engagement of the Visegrad Four at a lower policy level is expected and appreciated in the EU, which is where they might bring something new to the table with regard to the EU’s Western Balkan strategy.
The next enlargement round – the Balkan challenge
The present study highlights and discusses the issues that could potentially undermine the European prospects of South Eastern Europe. It argues that the latent threats emanate not only from the region itself but also from the EU. On the EU’s side the inability to speak in one voice and the ambiguous nature of conditionality policy hide the greatest risks to the enlargement process, which might weaken the credibility of the promise of EU integration. In the region, unfinished statehood issues, problems related to the rule of law and the potential social consequences of the current economic crisis represent the most serious dangers. Altogether, this study aims to draw attention to those problems, which are likely to be on the Hungarian presidency’s Balkan agenda. While presenting the potential challenges the presidency will face in 2011 concerning the Western Balkan region, the paper also offers some tentative recommendations on how to address them.